Can He Be The King of Cement?

Rafael Nadal is the reigning king of clay and grass. But can he rule the cement and have his day in New York?

Rafa's No. 1 in the world, but there is no denying the fact that he's not the same player on hardcourts than he is on grass and clay. This is not a knock, but it is a reality that must be taken into account when handicapping the U.S. Open.

Unless, that is, you believe that numbers lie.

Rafa went 22-0 on clay and 9-1 on grass courts over the spring, but in 27 matches on the hard stuff, he only managed a 21-6 clip. His last hardcourt title came in Indian Wells in 2009 (and only 9 of his 41 career titles have come on cement). It's plain as day that Rafa is still searching for that magic that so naturally flows from him on the other surfaces - and his recent efforts in Toronto and Cincinnati are further proof that he has yet to find it.

Now, 21-6 is hardly anything to scoff at, nor are his semifinal appearances in Indian Wells, Miami, and Toronto, but the fact that Rafa is basically winning three out of every four matches on the hard stuff doesn't exactly portend a breezy two weeks for the king of clay. Yes, he's got world-class heart, guile, strokes, and fitness - pretty much everything that you measure a tennis player by - but for some reason, Nadal isn't quite the same on the hard courts.

That being said, the belief does exist that nobody is better in a big match environment (no matter the surface), and that Rafa will find a way to will himself over the finish line provided that he is able to maintain his health.

I think it's plausible that Rafa, having suffered the heartbreak of two consecutive semifinal drubbings in New York, will be more prepared to fight for the last piece of the coveted career Grand Slam harder than he ever has before. And this fight - the classic Nadal pugnacity - coupled with Rafa's uncanny ability to stand on a precipice facing elimination and to swing with all his might, might make the difference this year.

One things for certain. To see Nadal and Federer clash in the final would be as special an event as the U.S. Open could hope for. It would be great for so many reasons and on so many levels. It would be a boon for the sport, and I think it goes without saying that it would be one of the most compelling chapters in the book of Roger and Rafa when all was said and done, because no way in hell would these two champions send the fans home without giving them their money's worth. Well, I mean it's happened before ( a particular French Open final comes to mind where Federer managed only four games), but the odds of it happening now are slim to none. Call it a premonition.

Here's hoping that Rafa raises his hardcourt game and shows the world that he can conquer New York. He doesn't have to win to do so, but he does have to improve upon what he's done in the past.

I don't think it's too much to ask, and I doubt that he does either.

Murray the Aggresor

Andy Murray has successfully defended his final points in Canada, but one more huge challenge awaits.

Speculate on who Andy Murray's next coach will be all you want, but he's doing just fine with his mom Judy, fitness trainer Jez Green, physio Andy Ireland, and his hitting partner Danny Vallverdu in his box, thank you.

And if today's breathtaking, expectation-changing 6-3, 6-4 decision over Rafael Nadal is any indication, things might not change anytime soon.

Murray was downright nasty in victory today, and he displayed the aggressive quality that many a pundit and coach has been calling for, by taking the play to Nadal consistently over the course of the 1-hour and 44-minute men's semifinal.

When Murray takes the court tomorrow against Roger Federer, he'll be vying to become the first player to win back-to-back Canadian titles since Andre Agassi accomplished the feat in 1994-95.

All of this good news begs the question: Should Murray look for a coach or should he assert his independence and draw upon the wisdom of his mother Judy, who is a terrific coach in her own right, and obviously knows her son as well as anyone else in the game.

And why not Judy, after all? Tennis coaches are part psychologists, and as Andy's mother, she's more than likely got the inside track over any other person on the planet when it comes to knowing what to say to inspire her son—or when to lay off and let him use his own problem solving skills.

And the fact that she is not currently Andy's "official" coach will give Andy the ultimate responsibility for his own game. Perhaps that is something he's been craving.

"Certain things you do differently when you are on your own," said Murray, after he handed David Nalbandian his first loss in twelve matches on Friday. "You are a bit more responsible, a bit more independent...it's the best I've played in a long time, maybe since Australia."

Is it really a coincidence that Murray has turned in his most commanding performance of the year just two weeks after parting ways with Miles Maclagan, or is this the beginning of another period of maturation for the 23-year-old?

Whether it's Judy's influence or Andy's freedom that has inspired his game (Brad Gilbert made the point that the new setup might be great for Andy because he enjoys proving people wrong), at this point it would make complete sense for Murray to leave things as they are through the U.S. Open and beyond.

Of course, all that could change with a sheepish performance against the guy that sent Murray reeling after a solid thrashing in the 2010 Australian Open final—Roger Federer.

And while Murray has gone the independent route, Federer has made headlines of his own in the past two weeks by hiring on Pete Sampras' former coach, legendary Paul Annacone.

In the same way tennis matches can turn on a dime, perhaps sentiment regarding Murray's current coaching status will turn on a dime tomorrow if he flops in the final.

Such is life in the high-pressure world of men's tennis. One minute you are the shark, the next you are the bloody seal. One minute the pundits are putting your name at the top of the list of possible U.S. Open champions, the next, well, you know what comes next.

You are only as good as your last match, and Murray's decision to veer sharply away from the typical player-coach relationship will look brilliant until his play on court forces us to think otherwise.

Change can be a breath of fresh air for a player. If Murray's stellar play this week in Toronto is any indication, going coachless is one change he just may want to make permanent.

Djokovic vs. Djokovic: The Battle Lingers On

The hard truth: At No. 2 in the world, Novak Djokovic is still looking for answers to questions about his health.

Novak Djokovic. He's an enigma wrapped inside a mystery. He's a supremely gifted and intuitive player with an uncanny flair for the dramatic, and he's a habitual brooder that tends to become a prisoner of his own demonic mind. He's got enough moxie to keep a roomful of international dignitaries hanging on his every word, enough style to look equally stunning in a tuxedo or a Speedo, and yet he's vulnerable, moody, and hypersensitive to the extreme pressure of being an elite athlete.

The phrase Jekyll and Hyde comes to mind, but there are so many theories—from Djokovic, his camp, pundits, and beyond—in play that it is very hard to get the the heart of Djokovic's demons.

It's easy to watch Djokovic, as we did yesterday as he struggled through a straight set win over Julian Benneteau, and wonder—just what the heck is up with this guy, and how much better would he be if his fitness was at the level of his peers?

But it's not so easy to understand.

"When you go out on the court you want to battle your opponent, you don't want to have to be worrying about yourself—that problem can be fixed," said Brad Gilbert, as he discussed Djokovic's health with Chris Fowler and Darren Cahill during an ESPN broadcast.

Gilbert, like many others who have found themselves frustrated when watching Djokovic struggle in spite of his world class strokes and tennis IQ, believes that Djokovic has it in his power to eliminate his distracting maladies.

But there are others that don't think it will be so easy. Perhaps, they think, this is Novak's cross to bear.

Still, it's worth a shot. Djokovic is only 23, and he does possess a skillset that could take him to the No. 1 ranking and even keep him there for a while—but not with his current afflictions.

Djokovic spends so much of his time fighting his issues with breathing, that's it is hard to get an accurate read on how much better the world's current No. 2 player could be if he went forward with the fitness level of other top-5 players.

But could it really be fixed, as Brad Gilbert wants to believe? Or is Novak a self fulfilling prophecy that will remain forever out of breath at those crucial moments of matches when he needs clarity—and oxygen—the most?

More perplexing, is that Djokovic himself isn't quite sure of the nature of his heat-related illnesses. "Well, it's a big mental struggle, as well, besides physical," Djokovic said yesterday after the match. "I don't know," he continued, "I'm really trying to balance all things in my life, and fitness-wise and everything, I've been doing a great job... It's just, I guess, a little nervousness during the match, and it all combines with the heat and stress..."

It's clear from his words, that Djokovic hasn't been able to put a finger on the cause of his on-court suffering. It's also clear that he wants to overcome his issues. In between moments where he was bending over and gasping for air yesterday, Djokovic was able to produce some thrilling shotmaking against the Frenchman Benneteau. If you saw his drop shot on set point in the first, you know exactly what i'm referring to.

Djokovic was able to overcome his issues yesterday, but in a different scenario against a different opponent, he might not have been so fortunate. Many of his losses in the past have been attributable to his breathing issues, and due to the current lack of understanding of the nature and legality of possible remedies for them, we can except to see more turbulence ahead.

The fact that he's No. 2 in the world in spite of all this is definitely cause for pride. The fact that he's searching for a solution, however, is still what is holding him back.

The Big 4 is Now Officially The Big 5

Look out Big 4, Here Comes "Le Sod."

It's hot at @CoupeRogers, and for the ATP's top four, it could stay that way. Temperatures are rising right along with the prize money this week in Toronto. It's 85 degrees with 66% humidity on Tuesday, and there are plenty more hot days on the horizon.

The goal of the typical ATP top-fiver is to win in this heat, but not at the expense of one's health. It's the double-headed dragon known as life on the tour, and it knows no reprieve. The challenge of managing and maintaing fitness (staying hydrated, preventing injuries, recovering for the next match without a loss in efficiency, and so much more) in an environment that rewards only those who are willing to push themselves to the brink of exhaustion in the oppressive heat 2 or 3 times per day is no easy task.

But when you push yourself to the brink each day the risks of injury mount. In today's game, with today's outrageous physical demands, a two-week haul (Toronto, followed by Cincy) on the cement is not an easy task.

As I write, we're all still waiting for the first of the top-5 ATP players to get a match in. It's been a period of recovery for the big boys, as only Soderling (Bastad) and Djokovic (Davis Cup, Split) have played a lick since @Wimbledon. Of course, we're all wondering who will get a feel for the hard courts first.

Nadal is currently on a planet all by himself when it comes to rankings, but there is room for significant play in slots two through five. Soderling is looking at the best chances to move up if he can maintain his current form and put up some big wins between now and September.

While the massive Swede from Tibro, Sweden doesn't doesn't claim to care about the rankings (see video at top of page), but there's no denying that the things that Soderling does on the court merit him considerable attention in them. It is not difficult at all to imagine him becoming No. 3 or No. 4 in the next three months. That statement is based on fact as well as a premonition. It's based out of respect for his consistent results this year, but also for the fact that Soderling has very few points to defend all the way past the Australian Open in 2011.

From there, who knows where he'll go. He doesn't seem to lack for desire, that's for sure.

The aggresive young usurper—He is timid as a mouse off the court, but when he laces 'em up Soderling aims for total destruction—has NO WINS to defend in either Toronto or Cincinnati, and only a quarterfinal at the U.S. Open.

All of this adds up to a surefire recipe for a climb.

If Rafa is the Bull and Roger is the Maestro, then Soderling is the punk. He's three chords and a dream—a massive serve, a massive forehand, and a massive will to win. He's a simple guitar solo with loads of feedback and a smashed guitar on the stage at the end of the song. He's punk because he's rebellious, and because his style of play is abrasive, loud, and anthemic.

And, like most punks, he's chronically pursuing the keys to the castle. Because nobody wanted to give them to him he proceeded to bang down the doors. He may have come late to the party, but Soderling doesn't appear as if he wants to leave.

So please mark this blog post as the official beginning of the unofficial Big Five of men's tennis.

With more research you can quickly see why Soderling is in prime position for a surge. Federer, the current No. 3, has a Montreal quarter, A Cincinnati title, a U.S. Open Final, and an Australian Open title to defend. That's mad points right there No offense to Roger, but as far as the rankings are concerned he'll be swimming uphill for a while.

Murray, the current No. 4, is another target that Soderling has an advantage on. Murray has a title in Canada and a semi in Cincinnati to defend. Soderling will pass him in the rankings even if they both have good results.

If there ever was a time for Soderling to step up and prove that he truly belongs in the conversation about the best current players in the game, it is now.

He's got the wind at his back, and a pretty big sail.

Falling Down the Mountain

Roddick falls out of the top-10 and American tennis hits a 35-year low. What comes next?

Watching the decline of American men's tennis has been like watching a train wreck in ultra-slow slow motion. For a while, it looked like Andy Roddick's wobbly wheels might be replaced by John Isner's or Sam Querrey's before the train swerved off the tracks and came to rest on its side next to the cabooses of those other former tennis juggernauts, Great Britain and Australia. But Roddick's fortunes have taken a turn for the worse this year, and Isner's and Querrey's futures remain as much in doubt as they were at the conclusion of last year's U.S. Open.

The result? For the first time since 1973, the ATP's top-ten is without a single American player. After Andy's loss to Frenchman Gilles Simon last night, the cold hard truth has finally taken over the warm fuzzy comfort of a century of tennis dominance. The train, in other words, has crashed.

Is this a bad thing? Of course! But is it the end of the world, and for that matter, the end of American tennis? Of course not.

Writers like me, who are already familiar with this story (the train wreck, in slow motion), will no doubt take pleasure in driving the final stake into the heart of tennis fans all over the country. "You're sport is dead here," we'll say, as if having a blog or a job at the local paper gives us the right to smash the hopes and dreams of anyone who has it in their heart (Isner, Querrey, Harrison, Kudla, Sock, Nishikori, and countless others) to revive this formerly revered entity known as American Tennis.

Editors note: I just got an e-mail that read "Are American men doomed for the U.S. Open?"

In response to those who want to know whether or not American tennis will become something more than the contents of a dusty old trophy case full of the names of yesteryear, I think that patience first, and understanding next, are the key ingredients to future success.

If we want to take the perspective of entitled, unsympathetic fools, then yes, the American men are doomed for the U.S. Open. Because for us, the unsympathetic and over entitled American tennis fans (spoiled by the glory years of Sampras, Agassi, McEnroe, and Connors) , nothing short of Grand Slam titles will ever be good enough.

But we shouldn't just give up believing that American doesn't possess athletes worthy to continue our influence and uncanny predeliction for the sport. Smashing American tennis is not an impossibility, and to look at in such a way is an exercise in futility. It'd be a self fulfilling prophecy, so why not believe?

I think the key question that many die-hard American tennis fans will have to answer is the following: do you love tennis or do you love American tennis? Because if you love tennis, you will enjoy watching young Americans embrace the challenge of trying to reinvent themselves and their games within the paradigm of the new modern game.

It is in no way shape or form going to be easy, and Patrick McEnroe, the General Manager of USTA's elite development program, knows that in ways that many of us have not even begun to comprehend. In our defense (unsympathetic fans), we've been watching the wheels come off the American Tennis train for quite some time, and it's been a pretty compelling fall from grace, so we haven't had time to actually get constructive about the future.

But P-mac (John's younger brother) has, and he's doing his best to think outside the box when it comes to training young talent for a future in a game that is very different from the game that Americans so naturally excelled at on so many levels. Patrick McEnroe has shown a keen eye for what makes players and programs successful, and he has exhibited a willingness to follow, embrace, and learn from the example of the Spanish and other successful programs.

It may not do much to ease the sting of looking at the ATP's current top-ten, but it does give fans reason to hope in the States. Now is not the time for bitterness or frustration now is the time for humility, acceptance of the facts that lay before us, diligence, and—more than ever—passion for the purity of the sport.

The train may have crashed, but the tracks are still there.

All we need to do is rethink the train.